Malibu · Los Angeles County
Leo Carrillo Surf Report
Bodi says: Leo Carrillo is good at 3–4 ft right now, and fair tomorrow around 10 AM. 🤙
Today's forecast
Surf
3–4 ft
Good
Tide
Dropping
Low 2.8 ft at 10:00 AM
Wind
6 kt
From NE · offshore
Water
72°F
from the buoy
Pollution risk
Low
No active advisory
A rocky point at Leo Carrillo State Park on the Ventura County line, with rights peeling along the cobble on west and northwest swells.
Conditions now
Good
Poor
Fair
Good
Excellent
Epic
3–4 ft. Offshore wind.
Rated by the Surfing Tomorrow Break Model, our proprietary method. How it works
Est. surf at the break
3–4 ft
Forecast by BODI, from the Scripps nearshore model just off Leo Carrillo.
Wind now
6 kt
From NE · offshore · forecast model for Nov 2, 6:00 AM
Tomorrow's forecast
Should I surf tomorrow? · Tue
3–4 ft · 12s S · WNW 7 kt · falling tide
Why: mid-period S swell + onshore wind 7 kt + falling tide.
Swell arriving — next 48 hours
Hourly swell height and period from the GFS-Wave / ECMWF marine model at 34.044, -118.934
Peak in the next 48h: 3.2 ft around Tue 10 PM
Longest period: 13s — longer period means the swell was generated by a stronger, more distant storm and will carry more energy into the break.
7-day surf
GFS-Wave + ECMWF modelMon
Good
13s
Tue
Good
12s
Wed
Fair
12s
Thu
Fair
12s
Fri
Fair
13s
Sat
Fair
12s
Sessions · Mon Best session: 6 AM–8 AM · 70/100
| Time | Surf | Wind | Tide | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 AM–8 AM | 3–4 ft | NE 5 kt | falling | 70 |
| 8 AM–10 AM | 3–4 ft | ENE 4 kt | falling | 66 |
| 10 AM–12 PM | 3–4 ft | SE 6 kt | rising | 58 |
| 12 PM–2 PM | 3–4 ft | SSE 7 kt | rising | 57 |
| 2 PM–4 PM | 3–4 ft | SSE 5 kt | rising | 51 |
| 4 PM–6 PM | 3–4 ft | SW 3 kt | falling | 66 |
Sessions · Tue Best session: 10 AM–12 PM · 49/100
| Time | Surf | Wind | Tide | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 AM–8 AM | 3–4 ft | NNW 7 kt | falling | 41 |
| 8 AM–10 AM | 3–4 ft | NNW 7 kt | falling | 48 |
| 10 AM–12 PM | 3–4 ft | WNW 7 kt | falling | 49 |
| 12 PM–2 PM | 3–4 ft | W 9 kt | rising | 45 |
| 2 PM–4 PM | 3–4 ft | W 9 kt | rising | 46 |
| 4 PM–6 PM | 3–4 ft | W 7 kt | rising | 41 |
How to read this: the curve is our estimated surf size at Leo Carrillo each day (from the forecast model, not the buoy); dot color is that day's rating at its best daylight hour (5 AM–7 PM), so a windy afternoon won't sink a glassy morning. Leo Carrillo works best with 12s+.
Tide
Santa Monica
High
4:51 AM
Low
10:00 AM
High
3:31 PM
Low
10:40 PM
High
5:29 AM
Low
11:14 AM
Best conditions
- Swell window
- S through W (200°–290°)
- Ideal period
- 12s+
- Tide
- Low to mid
- Wind
- Light offshore or glassy (typically early morning)
- Size
- 2–6 ft
Swells at the buoy
From the buoy: measured by NOAA buoy 46268 (Topanga Nearshore (CDIP 103)) · reading taken Nov 2, 5:00 AM
Total wave height
3.3 ft14s SSW 208°
All wave energy combined
Groundswell
2.3 ft14.3s SSW
Longer-period swell from distant storms
Wind swell
2 ft7.1s SW
Short-period chop from local or nearby wind
Get alerts
Know when Leo Carrillo is going to be good.
Get one email the day before this break rates Good or better.
Wind — next 48 hours
Hourly 10 m wind speed. Offshore here is roughly E–NE.
Cleanest window: Tue 1 AM at 1 kt. Arrows show where the wind is blowing: green is offshore or glassy, yellow cross-shore, red onshore.
Swell & wind direction
Where the energy is coming from versus the window Leo Carrillo needs.
- Swell from
- SSW · 202°
- Wind from
- NE · 53°
- Swell window
- SSW–WNW (shaded)
Water & air temperature
Water temperature from the buoy (NOAA 46268); air temperature from the weather model. Placed on the wetsuit scale.
Wear: Boardshorts / spring
BODI swell breakdown
Each swell hitting Leo Carrillo right now, measured just outside the break. Confidence: High.
Groundswell
2.3 ft
14s · S 191°
Mid-period swell
1.1 ft
13s · S 191°
Wind swell
1.4 ft
9s · SSW 201°
Swell heights are open-water heights near the break; wave faces are usually bigger. Wind: NOAA HRRR / GFS. Meet BODI
How we rate the surf
Surf size comes from BODI, our forecasting engine. It starts from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography nearshore wave model at the point closest to Leo Carrillo, which already accounts for island shadowing, canyons and headlands. BODI then grows each swell by its period (longer swell stands up taller), adds Leo Carrillo's own local adjustment, and slowly corrects itself by comparing past forecasts with what actually arrived. If that data is unavailable, it falls back to the nearest buoy and Leo Carrillo's swell window. The Surfing Tomorrow Break Model then rates it. Wave size sets the possible range; the wind decides where in that range it lands. Offshore or glassy wind puts it at the top, cross-shore or light onshore at the bottom, strong onshore drops it one level, and rain or storms drop it one more.
| Wave size at the break | Possible rating |
|---|---|
| Under 1 ft | Poor |
| 1–2 ft | Poor to Fair |
| 2–4 ft | Fair to Good |
| 4–5 ft | Good to Excellent |
| 5–8 ft | Excellent to Epic |
| 8 ft + | Excellent to Epic |
Surf under 3 ft never rates above Fair. When the tide is well outside Leo Carrillo's preferred range (low to mid), the current rating drops one level. Best windows come from the hourly forecast between 5 AM and 7 PM. Estimates, not measurements.
Recent from the lineup — YouTube
The newest YouTube videos and Shorts matching “Leo Carrillo” and its city. Each is credited to its creator and plays from YouTube.
Through the year — monthly guide & videos
What Leo Carrillo is like through the year. Pick a month for a quick guide built from recent years of weather and wave records, plus YouTube videos of Leo Carrillo in that month.
November at Leo Carrillo
Saved YouTube picks for Leo Carrillo in November, filtered to real surf footage. The date shown is when each video was posted.
Surf video picks dropping soon — check back daily.
The break
Best on W and NW swells that wrap around the point.
Rocky, cobbled bottom — tide changes the wave a lot.
Tide pools, caves and a state campground make it a classic surf trip spot.
Hazards & etiquette
- Rocks and urchins at lower tides.
- Kelp and rocky entry points.
Getting there
- Parking
- Leo Carrillo State Park day-use lot (paid) and Pacific Coast Highway shoulder parking.
- Nearest buoy
- NDBC 46268 — Topanga Nearshore (CDIP 103), about 20 mi away.
- Tide station
- NOAA 9410840 — Santa Monica.
Seasonal patterns
Spring (Mar–May)
Late NW swells and the first south pulses. Water about 58–63°F, May Gray fog and afternoon onshore wind. 3/2 or 4/3 full suit.
Summer (Jun–Aug)
South swell season — Malibu and the south-facing points light up. Water climbs into the upper 60s°F. Crowded; surf early before the sea breeze.
Fall (Sep–Nov)
Mixed late S and early NW swells, the warmest water and Santa Ana offshore mornings. Often the best time of year.
Winter (Dec–Feb)
NW and W groundswell season for Zuma, the South Bay and Palos Verdes. Water 56–60°F, 4/3 suit. Rain brings runoff advisories.
Water quality & pollution
Official bacteria tests, warnings and closures from California BeachWatch (State Water Board, reported by San Diego County), for sampling stations within 1.5 miles. Fetched Nov 2, 6:06 AM.
No active warnings or closures at nearby stations.
| Station | Sampled | Test | Result | State limit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No samples at stations within 1.5 miles in the last 60 days. | ||||
Air quality (US AQI)
—
Unavailable
PM2.5 · Ozone
— · —
µg/m³
Air quality is a forecast model estimate (Copernicus CAMS via Open-Meteo), not a monitor reading.
Water-quality results come from California's BeachWatch program. Avoid the water for at least 72 hours after significant rain — urban runoff raises bacteria levels at nearly every Southern California beach.
Nearby spots
Where this data comes from
Every underlying data input comes from the sources listed below. Surf size and ratings are calculated using the Surfing Tomorrow Break Model. Not everything is a live measurement at the break — here's exactly what each item is.
| Item | Type | Source | Last updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swell height, period, direction | Measured nearshore | NOAA NDBC buoy 46268 (Topanga Nearshore (CDIP 103)). NOAA posts new readings about every 30–60 min. | Reading taken Nov 2, 5:00 AM |
| Water temperature | Measured nearshore | NOAA NDBC buoy 46268. Water at the break can differ slightly. | Reading taken Nov 2, 5:00 AM |
| Tide | Official prediction | NOAA CO-OPS station 9410840 (Santa Monica). Calculated tide tables, not live water level. | Fetched Nov 2, 6:06 AM |
| 7-day swell, 48-hour swell | Forecast model | GFS-Wave / ECMWF marine models via Open-Meteo, for the open ocean off this spot. | Fetched Nov 2, 6:06 AM |
| Wind now, 48-hour wind, air temperature | Forecast model | Open-Meteo weather model. Local sea breezes can differ from the model. | Fetched Nov 2, 6:06 AM |
| Conditions rating | Surfing Tomorrow Break Model | Our proprietary rating: estimated wave size sets the range, current wind and rain/storm weather set the level (Poor, Fair, Good, Excellent, Epic). | Calculated Nov 2, 6:06 AM |
| Est. surf at the break | Surfing Tomorrow Break Model | Our proprietary estimate: buoy groundswell and wind swell scaled by period and swell-window alignment for this break. | From reading at Nov 2, 5:00 AM |
| Water bacteria, warnings, closures | Official test results | California BeachWatch (State Water Resources Control Board), reported by San Diego County DEHQ. Sampled weekly at most stations; results post a day or more after sampling. | Fetched Nov 2, 6:06 AM |
| Air quality | Forecast model | Copernicus CAMS air-quality model via Open-Meteo. Not a ground monitor. | Unavailable |
| Break guide, hazards, seasons | Written guide | General local knowledge. Seasonal water temperatures are typical ranges, not live readings. | Reviewed by our team |
Important: buoy 46268 (Topanga Nearshore (CDIP 103)) measures the swell out at sea, not at Leo Carrillo itself. Waves at the break can be bigger or smaller than the buoy reading depending on swell angle, the sea floor and nearby headlands. Always check the water yourself and know your limits.