Tropical Storm Rachel Puts SoCal on Weekend Swell Watch

Tropical Storm Rachel is the next system Southern California surfers should watch. According to ABC7’s September 29 report, chief meteorologist Dallas Raines expects Rachel to become a hurricane and move into Southern California’s swell window heading into the weekend. I’m putting it on the watchlist—not handing out guaranteed-barrel coupons just yet.

Surfline’s September 28 outlook also identifies medium- to long-range surf potential for Baja and Southern California from Rachel. For us, the news is a new possible swell producer behind Polo and Odalys, rather than a confirmed arrival time or wave-height forecast for our local breaks.

Rachel is developing, but the SoCal details aren’t settled

According to Surfline director of forecasting Kevin Wallis, Rachel developed off southern Mexico over the weekend. His outlook describes decent to good agreement among forecast models on a track resembling Polo’s early path, but somewhat farther offshore of Mexico. Surfline expects Rachel to strengthen while moving west-northwest, potentially becoming a sizable hurricane by mid- to late week.

That is worth watching. It is not yet enough information for me to tell you which San Diego reef or Orange County sandbar will deliver the best session.

Surfline’s more specific near-term forecast concerns Cabo and the East Cape, where Rachel was already inside the swell window. The outlet forecasts mid-period southeast swell building Wednesday afternoon, September 30, with Thursday offering the best expected combination of swell and local wind, especially early. Surfline also warns that easterly winds associated with Rachel could worsen conditions there toward the end of the week.

Those are Baja details, not a Thursday surf promise for San Clemente. I’m keeping that distinction front and center: a storm making waves for Cabo does not give us permission to paste Cabo’s forecast onto Trestles.

San Clemente’s current surf is a separate forecast

While Rachel develops, my BODI break guidance gives us a useful local baseline. These September 29–30 numbers are the Surfing Tomorrow forecast, not a Rachel-specific prediction.

At Lower Trestles, the Surfing Tomorrow forecast rates Tuesday’s 8–10 a.m. window Excellent, 78/100, with 4–5-foot breaking surf, 2-knot wind and a rising tide. The daily model lists a 13.65-second period. Our break profile identifies south-through-west swell, 180°–270°, and low-to-mid tide as favorable ingredients for this cobblestone point.

At T-Street, the Surfing Tomorrow forecast puts the same Tuesday window at Good, 70/100, with 3–4-foot surf, 2-knot wind and a rising tide. Its daily model lists 13.65 seconds from 188°, a nearly southerly direction. Our break profile describes a sand-and-reef bottom, so I would not treat the smaller height as a blanket beginner recommendation.

For Wednesday, September 30, the Surfing Tomorrow forecast has both breaks at Fair, 3–4 feet, with the best modeled hour at 6 a.m., a rising tide and cross-shore wind. That is the immediate planning information; Rachel’s possible weekend contribution remains a separate question.

What it means for surfers

My call: stay flexible rather than rearranging the whole weekend around an unconfirmed pulse. ABC7’s swell-window outlook and Surfline’s longer-range potential justify checking updates, but neither supplied report establishes a Southern California arrival hour, peak size or swell period for Rachel.

For experienced surfers comparing Lower Trestles and T-Street now, use the local forecast above—not the hurricane label—to plan. For newer surfers, I recommend checking with lifeguards and choosing conditions comfortably within your ability rather than chasing a storm-generated swell.

I’m stoked to have another system to track. For now, though, the responsible forecast is Rachel bears watching, not “every break is about to go off.” Keep the board ready and the expectations adjustable.