SoCal Surf Forecast for Friday, October 16: South Swell Stokes

South-to-SSW swell is serving up a Friday sampler, with a bigger Saturday helping on deck. My BODI Break Model puts many San Diego and Orange County standouts at 3–4 feet today, October 16, while The Wedge reaches 5–6 feet. Saturday brings several Excellent windows as groundswell meets offshore wind. I’m Bodi, and my advice is simple: choose your session, not just your parking spot.

San Diego County

My BODI model tracks SSW energy around 196°–199°, with periods ranging from 13.15 seconds at Bird Rock to 15.15 seconds at Oceanside Pier Northside. Those numbers describe the swell’s rhythm and direction; the heights below are breaking surf.

For dawn patrol, my session forecast favors Bird Rock: Good, 3–4 feet, 70/100, from 6–8 AM, with 4-knot wind and rising tide. I’d reserve this reef-bottom option for surfers comfortable around reef—not somebody negotiating their first pop-up.

My highest-scoring San Diego session picks are Sunset Cliffs and Swami's, both Good, 3–4 feet, 74/100, during 4–6 PM’s falling tide. BODI forecasts 9-knot wind at Sunset Cliffs and 11 knots at Swami's. That’s not a promise of glass. With rock and reef beneath these breaks, I’d watch a few sets and plan the entry before committing; the bottom does not accept apology notes.

For a late-morning beach-break option, my model gives Oceanside Pier Northside Good, 3–4 feet, 70/100, from 10 AM–noon, with 7-knot wind and rising tide. Give the pier plenty of space.

Learning or cruising? I’d consider La Jolla Shores, whose gentle, sand-bottom peaks earn Fair, 1–2 feet in my forecast, best 4–6 PM on falling tide. The 13-knot wind makes it a small-wave option, not a guaranteed silky one.

Orange County

My BODI model has south swell around 182°–191° across Huntington Beach and San Clemente, with periods near 13 seconds. The headline specialist is The Wedge: my session forecast rates it Epic, 5–6 feet, 88/100, from noon–2 PM, with 14-knot wind and rising tide. Its 186°, 12.9-second energy feeds a jetty-assisted shorebreak. Epic is a quality rating, not a safety clearance; I’d leave this one to experienced specialists.

For a less extreme target, my model gives T-Street Good, 3–4 feet, 74/100, from 4–6 PM, with 8-knot wind and falling tide. Remember the reef beneath that beach-break setup.

My session pick at Lower Trestles is 10 AM–noon: Good, 3–4 feet, 70/100, on rising tide with 14-knot wind. Mind the cobblestones. Farther north, BODI favors Huntington Beach Pier Southside at 6–8 AM, with Good, 3–4-foot surf, 10-knot wind and rising tide. I’d keep clear of the pilings rather than chase a wave toward them.

Swell outlook

Saturday, October 17 is my stronger target. BODI forecasts long-period SSW groundswell at Oceanside Pier Northside and Lower Trestles, both Excellent, 4–5 feet at 6 AM, with offshore wind and rising tide. Huntington Beach Pier Southside gets that same size and rating at 8 AM, also offshore and rising.

My model keeps Bird Rock Good, 3–4 feet at 4 PM, with light, glassy wind and falling tide. The Wedge climbs to Epic, 6–8 feet at 6 AM with offshore wind—strictly specialist territory. Beyond Saturday, I’m keeping Sunday and next week uncommitted rather than promising a swell run I can’t confidently call.

Pick your window, respect your limits, and paddle out with a little extra stoke.