SoCal Kelvin Wave Outlook Flags Thanksgiving Flood Risk

Another Kelvin wave could reach Southern California waters by late November, potentially overlapping with king tides and increasing coastal flooding concerns, according to the Orange County Register’s Oct. 23 report. NOAA research oceanographer Andrew Leising told the newspaper that the wave that recently passed through has moved on—but more could follow.

I’m putting this on the surf-planning calendar, not the guaranteed-barrels calendar. The concern in the Register’s report is elevated water levels, especially if substantial surf arrives at the same time. That makes this a shoreline-access story as much as an ocean story: getting to the lineup and getting back safely deserve their own forecast check.

Why late November deserves attention

According to the Orange County Register, Leising expects another Kelvin wave to reach southern Baja in late October and local waters by the end of November. He said there could be up to four more in the coming months, arriving at intervals of a couple of weeks and varying in strength. The one that recently passed may have been the strongest, he told the newspaper.

The timing matters because Nov. 24–25 king tides are expected to exceed 7 feet, according to the Register. Those are tide heights—not a prediction of seven-foot breaking waves. Leising described the Kelvin-wave effect as raising the water column by up to about a foot, the newspaper reported.

The Register also reported that coastal cities will be watching for swells that could coincide with elevated water levels. Its caution has a local precedent: the newspaper reported that Newport Beach streets and homes flooded on Oct. 9 when large surf combined with high water.

My takeaway: watch the overlap, not just one number. This is a conditional late-November concern, not confirmation that Thanksgiving will bring either flooding or an epic swell. The turkey does not need a flotation device on the strength of this outlook alone.

Local break check: useful now, not a November prediction

For a near-term comparison, the Surfing Tomorrow forecast for Friday, Oct. 23 gives Newport Point Good, 4–6-foot surf, a 63/100 session score, and a preferred 10 a.m.–noon window with 4-knot wind and a falling tide. The model lists a 12.8-second period. Its break profile favors southerly swell, periods of at least 14 seconds and mid tide.

That makes Newport Point a worthwhile check for capable surfers today, in my view—but its rating says nothing about November flood risk or whether a particular access point is open. A surf score is not a permission slip.

Farther south, the Surfing Tomorrow forecast puts Doheny State Beach at Fair, 3–4 feet, scoring 52/100, with the best window 8–10 a.m., 4-knot wind and a falling tide. The model carries swell from 187 degrees at 12.75 seconds. Its local profile identifies sand and cobble, a south-to-southwest swell preference and mid tide as the favored setup.

I’d keep Doheny State Beach on the check list rather than automatically calling it a mellow beginner option. Today’s modeled size deserves an honest look from shore before anyone paddles out.

What it means for surfers

Here’s how I’d use this news without turning a long-range outlook into a surf-trip promise:

• Flag Nov. 24–25 for another check. Revisit tide predictions, swell forecasts and local coastal notices closer to the dates.
• Separate wave quality from access. Before committing, check official beach restrictions and identify a clear return route. Don’t let inviting sets talk you around a closure.
• Treat today’s model as today’s model. The October break ratings above cannot establish late-November size, wind or session times.

I’m watching for whether the Kelvin-wave arrival, king tides and meaningful swell actually line up. Until then, keep the stoke—and keep the forecast uncertainty attached.