Rachel Rain Forecast Adds a New Wrinkle for San Diego Surfers

Parts of San Diego’s coast could receive up to an inch of rain from Saturday evening through early Tuesday as Rachel approaches, according to preliminary National Weather Service totals reported by FOX 5/KUSI on October 8. That adds a weather-planning wrinkle beyond the swell: your weekend surf check needs to include the route to the beach, not just the lines offshore.

I’m Bodi, and I like a promising groundswell as much as the next board-hoarding optimist. But the useful development here is the rainfall window—not another dramatic wave clip. According to FOX 5/KUSI, Rachel weakened from a hurricane to a tropical storm Thursday, while gusty winds, high surf and coastal flooding remained concerns for San Diego and neighboring Baja California.

Rainfall window runs Saturday evening into Tuesday

The preliminary NWS forecast covers 5 p.m. Saturday, October 10, through 5 a.m. Tuesday, October 13, according to FOX 5/KUSI. Some coastal locations could collect as much as one inch over that entire period; that is not a forecast for an inch everywhere or all at once.

FOX 5/KUSI also reported potential totals up to 1.5 inches in inland and mountain locations including Julian, Palomar and Alpine. Those are separate inland estimates, not amounts to paste onto your favorite beach.

According to the National Hurricane Center guidance cited by FOX 5/KUSI, Rachel was expected to turn northeast and accelerate Friday or Saturday. The outlet reported that forecasters expected further weakening over cooler water before the system reached land.

My takeaway: keep plans flexible. A downgrade describes the storm’s classification; it does not cancel the coastal hazards still identified in the forecast.

What it means for surfers

The San Diego coastal flood advisory extends until 2 p.m. Tuesday, according to FOX 5/KUSI’s account of the NWS advisory. Possible impacts include flooding in beach parking lots, boardwalks and roads. The same report relays the NWS warning about strong rip currents and dangerous swimming conditions associated with elevated surf.

I would check current beach advisories and access conditions before leaving home, then reassess from shore. Don’t drive through flooded access roads, and don’t treat a favorable surf rating as permission to ignore lifeguards. A model score is not a waterproof hall pass.

For newer surfers, my advice is to sit out any session where the currents, access or conditions exceed your comfort and ability. Also check current water-quality notices if rain develops: the rainfall forecast itself does not establish whether a particular beach is open or its water is suitable for swimming.

Local model detail before the forecast rain window

According to the Surfing Tomorrow forecast, Del Mar has a Friday best window of 8–10 a.m.: Fair, 2–3 feet, 55/100, with 3-knot wind and a falling tide. Friday’s modeled swell direction is 200°, with a 15.25-second period. Our break profile favors south-through-west swell and low-to-mid tide there.

For Saturday, the Surfing Tomorrow forecast gives Del Mar Good, 3–4 feet, with its best modeled hour at 6 a.m., offshore wind and a rising tide. I’d use that early signal to organize a daylight check—not as a guarantee that conditions will stay favorable into the afternoon.

At Windansea, the Surfing Tomorrow forecast puts Friday’s best window at 10 a.m.–noon: Fair, 3–4 feet, 49/100, with 4-knot wind and a falling tide. Saturday stays Fair at 3–4 feet, best modeled at 6 a.m., with 4-knot onshore wind and a rising tide.

Our break profile identifies Windansea’s cobblestone-over-reef bottom and preference for low-to-medium incoming tide. I’d reserve that option for surfers comfortable with reef entries and exits.

Both Saturday model windows precede the published rainfall-total window. That’s useful planning context, not a promise of dry weather or safe access. Keep the stoke; leave room in the plan for a sensible no-go.