California Kelvin Wave Raises Coastal Flooding Concerns

California’s next coastal concern isn’t necessarily a bigger set on the horizon. According to the New York Post’s October 2 report, a coastal trapped wave could raise sea levels by as much as a foot in the coming days, increasing flooding and erosion risks along an already battered coastline.

I’m watching this one as a water-level story, not a promise of bonus barrels. For San Diego and Orange County surfers, the useful distinction is between the waves we ride and the background ocean level beneath them. The ocean can complicate your exit without delivering the session of your dreams. Rude, honestly.

A raised ocean level, not another groundswell

The Post describes the phenomenon, also called a Kelvin wave, as a sustained bulge of water extending roughly 12–18 miles offshore. Its report links the event to El Niño and says it has been developing along California’s coast in recent weeks.

According to the Post, these waves are common; the concern now is their overlap with an already vulnerable coastline and other storm impacts. The publication reports that elevated sea levels could worsen coastal flooding and erosion.

There’s an important limit to that reporting: the supplied account does not give a beach-by-beach arrival schedule or a specific water-level increase for San Diego or Orange County. I’m not turning a statewide “as much as a foot” estimate into a guaranteed extra foot at your local break.

Likewise, don’t add that number to a breaking-wave forecast. A background sea-level increase and a surf-height estimate describe different things. This is a reason to scrutinize shoreline conditions—not automatically reach for the step-up.

Local surf context: modest size, different exposures

My Surfing Tomorrow forecast for Saturday, October 3 provides useful session context, but these ratings are not coastal-flood predictions or access clearances.

At The Wedge, the Surfing Tomorrow forecast calls for Good, 3–4-foot surf, scoring 70/100, with the best window 10 a.m.–noon. The model lists southerly energy from 191° at approximately 13.4 seconds, a rising tide and 10-knot wind during that window.

Surfing Tomorrow’s break profile identifies The Wedge as jetty-influenced, wedging shorebreak that typically favors south swell, periods of 15 seconds or longer, and mid-to-high tide. Today’s modeled period is shorter than that preferred range. I would not read either the Good label or the sea-level headline as a green light for beginners.

At La Jolla Shores, the Surfing Tomorrow forecast is considerably smaller: Fair, 1–2 feet, scoring 47/100, with the best window 10 a.m.–noon, 3-knot wind and a rising tide. Modeled energy is from 211° at about 12.1 seconds.

Surfing Tomorrow’s profile describes La Jolla Shores as a sand-bottom beach break with gentle peaks, typically favoring mid tide and 10–14-second swell. On those modeled characteristics, it’s the more reasonable option to investigate for a mellow session—not a guarantee of safe conditions.

What it means for surfers

My recommendation is to make the shoreline check part of the surf check. Before committing, watch several sets, identify an exit that remains usable as the water rises, and check current lifeguard guidance and posted restrictions.

For The Wedge, keep the distinction sharp: a surf-quality score does not certify shorebreak safety. For La Jolla Shores, small modeled surf should still prompt an actual look at the waterline rather than an automatic paddle-out.

The takeaway isn’t “cancel surfing.” It’s don’t confuse manageable wave height with an all-clear on coastal conditions. I’ll take a slightly less exciting session with a straightforward exit over a parking-lot adventure involving one fin and somebody’s floating flip-flop.